The Impact of HydroCarbon Exploration in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) on the Cyprus-Turkey Relations; A Regional Stakeholders Analysis

Abstract

The discovery of HydroCarbons (HxCY) by Eastern Mediterranean countries is changing the relations and economics in the region in many and different ways that are still evolving. A literature review took place regarding the Cyprus-Turkey relations in order to examine Cyprus’ decision to proceed with explorations and drillings in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This subject is linked both with areas of conflict and security, but also energy issues in the wider region. It is considered as a major issue that it is going to affect the existing situation among Cyprus and Turkey, while at the same time it is expected to change the developments in the Eastern Mediterranean region. A conceptual framework is given and then the research question regarding the identification of the Critical Success Factors that would affect positively the Cyprus-Turkey relations in the case of HxCY exploration in Cyprus’ EEZ. A detailed stakeholder’s analysis shows that there are many factors involved in this relation and consequently it is difficult to make predictions about the near and medium-term future mainly due to the unpredictability of the regime in Ankara. Based on the findings of the research, which took place for a 3-months period in 2015, the continuation of the HxCY exploration in Cyprus’ EEZ strengthen its position and it gives a competitive advantage to Cyprus against Turkey; it provides credit to Cyprus’s efforts for national security and for this reason, several steps and actions are proposed to Cyprus in order to maximize any profits and increase its advantage against Turkey in the near/mid-term period. Energy cooperation, which is strongly related to economics, can ease tensions and even terminate conflicts of political nature provided that the involved actors have a sincere willingness to respect each other. In other case, it will continue to be a power game among main stakeholders which are Cyprus, Turkey, Egypt, Israel, Greece, the main poles like USA and EU and finally commercial companies involved in the exploration of HxCY in the region.